This paper examines the potential to expand public HIV financing, and the extent to which governments have been utilising these options. First, with data from the 14 most HIV-affected countries in sub-Saharan Africa, the authors estimate the potential increase in public HIV financing from economic growth, increased general revenue generation, greater health and HIV prioritisation, as well as from more unconventional and innovative sources, including borrowing, health-earmarked resources, efficiency gains, and complementary non-HIV investments. The authors then adopt a novel empirical approach to explore which options are most likely to translate into tangible public financing, based on cross-sectional econometric analyses of 92 low and middle-income country governments' most recent HIV expenditure between 2008 and 2012. If all fiscal sources were simultaneously leveraged in the next five years, public HIV spending in these 14 countries could, it is estimated, increase from US$3.04 to US$10.84 billion per year. This could cover resource requirements in South Africa, Botswana, Namibia, Kenya, Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Swaziland, but not even half the requirements in the remaining countries. The empirical results suggest that, in reality, even less fiscal space could be created (a reduction by over half) and only from more conventional sources. International financing may also crowd in public financing. The authors observe that most HIV-affected lower-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa will not be able to generate sufficient public resources for HIV in the medium-term, even if they take very bold measures. Considerable international financing will be required for years to come. HIV funders will need to engage with broader health and development financing to improve government revenue-raising and efficiencies
Resource allocation and health financing
Many of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)are not being achieved in the world’s poorest countries, yet only five years remain until the target date. The financing of these Goals is not merely insufficient; current evidence indicates that the temporary nature of the financing, as well as challenges to coordinating its delivery and directing it to the most needy recipients, hinder achievement of the Goals in countries that may benefit most. Traditional approaches to providing development assistance for health have not been able to address both prevalent and emergent public health challenges captured in the Goals; these challenges demand sustained forms of financial redistribution through a coordinated mechanism. This paper proposes a global social health protection fund to address recurring failures in the modern aid distribution mechanism. Such a Fund could use established and effective strategies for aid delivery to mitigate many financial problems currently undermining the MDG initiative.
This report provides the latest data available on donor funding based on data provided by governments. The year 2009’s totals reflect a substantial increase in funding provided by the United States (rising from US$3.95 billion in 2008 to $4.4 billion in 2009), which helped to offset reductions in support from Canada, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, and the Netherlands. According to the report, the United States remains the largest donor nation in the world, accounting for more than half (58%) of 2009 disbursements, followed by United Kingdom (10.2%), Germany (5.2%), the Netherlands (5%) and France (4.4%). UNAIDS estimates that $23.6 billion was needed to address the epidemic in low- and middle- income countries in 2009, which suggests a growing gap of $7.7 billion between available resources and need. In 2009, donor governments disbursed $5.9 billion bilaterally and earmarked funds for HIV through multilateral organisations, as well as an additional US$1.6 billion to combat HIV through the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria and US$123 million to UNITAID.
The ambitious development agenda of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) requires substantial investments across several sectors, including for SDG 3 (healthy lives and wellbeing). No estimates of the additional resources needed to strengthen comprehensive health service delivery towards the attainment of SDG 3 and universal health coverage in low-income and middle-income countries have been published. The authors developed a framework for health systems strengthening, within which population-level and individual-level health service coverage is gradually scaled up over time and calculated projections for 67 low-income and middle-income countries from 2016 to 2030. The authors estimated that an additional $274 billion spending on health is needed per year by 2030 to make progress towards the SDG 3 targets (progress scenario), whereas US$371 billion would be needed to reach health system targets in the ambitious scenario—the equivalent of an additional $41 or $58 per person, respectively, by the final years of scale-up. In the ambitious scenario, total health-care spending would increase to a population-weighted mean of $271 per person across country contexts, and the share of gross domestic product spent on health would increase to a mean of 7.5%. Around 75% of costs are for health systems, with health workforce and infrastructure (including medical equipment) as the main cost drivers. Despite projected increases in health spending, a financing gap of $20–54 billion per year is projected. Should funds be made available and used as planned, the ambitious scenario would save 97 million lives and significantly increase life expectancy by 3·1–8·4 years, depending on the country profile. All countries will need to strengthen investments in health systems to expand service provision in order to reach SDG 3 health targets, but even the poorest can reach some level of universality. In view of anticipated resource constraints, each country will need to prioritise equitably, plan strategically, and cost realistically its own path towards SDG 3 and universal health coverage.
No estimates of the additional resources needed to strengthen comprehensive health service delivery towards the attainment of SDG 3 and universal health coverage in low-income and middle-income countries have been published. The authors developed a framework for health systems strengthening, within which population-level and individual-level health service coverage is gradually scaled up over time. They developed projections for 67 low-income and middle-income countries from 2016 to 2030, representing 95% of the total population in low-income and middle-income countries. The authors considered four service delivery platforms, and modeled two scenarios with differing levels of ambition: a progress scenario, in which countries' advancement towards global targets is constrained by their health system's assumed absorptive capacity, and an ambitious scenario, in which most countries attain the global targets. They estimated the associated costs and health effects, including reduced prevalence of illness, lives saved, and increases in life expectancy. They projected available funding by country and year, taking into account economic growth and anticipated allocation towards the health sector, to allow for an analysis of affordability and financial sustainability. The authors estimate that an additional $274 billion spending on health is needed per year by 2030 to make progress towards the SDG 3 targets (progress scenario), whereas US$371 billion would be needed to reach health system targets in the ambitious scenario—the equivalent of an additional $41 or $58 per person, respectively, by the final years of scale-up. In the ambitious scenario, total health-care spending would increase to a population-weighted mean of $271 per person across country contexts, and the share of gross domestic product spent on health would increase to a mean of 7.5%. Around 75% of costs are for health systems, with health workforce and infrastructure (including medical equipment) as the main cost drivers. Despite projected increases in health spending, a financing gap of $20–54 billion per year is projected. Should funds be made available and used as planned, the ambitious scenario would save 97 million lives and significantly increase life expectancy by 3.1–8.4 years, depending on the country profile. All countries will need to strengthen investments in health systems to expand service provision in order to reach SDG 3 health targets, but even the poorest can reach some level of universality. In view of anticipated resource constraints, each country will need to prioritise equitably, plan strategically, and cost realistically its own path towards SDG 3 and universal health coverage.
How to finance progress towards universal health coverage in low-income and middle-income countries is a subject of intense debate. The authors investigated how alternative tax systems affect the breadth, depth, and height of health system coverage. The authors used cross-national longitudinal fixed effects models to assess the relationships between total and different types of tax revenue, health system coverage, and associated child and maternal health outcomes in 89 low-income and middle-income countries from 1995–2011. Tax revenue was a major statistical determinant of progress towards universal health coverage. Each US$100 per capita per year of additional tax revenues corresponded to a yearly increase in government health spending of $9·86, adjusted for GDP per capita. This association was strong for taxes on capital gains, profits, and income, but not for consumption taxes on goods and services. In countries with low tax revenues (<$1000 per capita per year), an additional $100 tax revenue per year substantially increased the proportion of births with a skilled attendant present by 6·74 percentage points and the extent of financial coverage by 11·4 percentage points. Consumption taxes, a more regressive form of taxation that might reduce the ability of the poor to afford essential goods, were associated with increased rates of post-neonatal mortality, infant mortality, and under-5 mortality rates. The authors did not detect these adverse associations with taxes on capital gains, profits, and income, which tend to be more progressive. Increasing domestic tax revenues is integral to achieving universal health coverage, particularly in countries with low tax bases. Pro-poor taxes on profits and capital gains seem to support expanding health coverage without the adverse associations with health outcomes observed for higher consumption taxes. Progressive tax policies within a pro-poor framework might accelerate progress toward achieving major international health goals.
In their paper on Fiscal Capacity and Aid Allocation: Domestic Resource Mobilization and Foreign Aid in Developing Countries the authors look into the interaction between fiscal performance and donor aid allocation. The analysis reveals that there is hardly any correlation between overall aid and fiscal performance and capacity. Furthermore, the authors point to gaps in terms of external funders delivering on their commitments to align with recipient country priorities and providing aid through country Public Finance Management systems - despite promises to pay greater attention to DRM efforts of recipient countries.
There is a need to increase government expenditure on health and other social services in many countries in order to achieve universal health coverage (UHC) and promote inclusive social and economic development. Individual governments have an obligation to allocate the maximum available resources from domestic sources, and not simply rely on international assistance, in order to achieve the progressive realization of fundamental human rights. Ultimately, this requires adequate levels of government expenditure on a range of social services. While government expenditure as a percentage of GDP is on average higher in ‘advanced economies’ than in other countries, there is no strong correlation between levels of government spending and economic development across individual countries (i.e., the size of a country’s GDP does not ‘predetermine’ or dictate government spending levels).Government revenue generation is the strongest determinant of government expenditure levels within individual countries; hence, emphasis should be on increasing government revenue. The report outlines progressive options for achieving this.
The financial transaction tax (FTT) proposed by France and Germany and due to be discussed in the November G20 Summit, could help save millions of lives if a percentage were allocated to global health, according to an issue brief released today by the international medical humanitarian organisation Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF). MSF’s issue brief, Five Lives, outlines through five personal stories the transformative impact an FTT allocation to global health could have. The report looks at interventions that can prevent a child from becoming severely malnourished to begin with; protect children from deadly measles outbreaks; prevent a baby from acquiring HIV through childbirth; get people on life-saving tuberculosis treatment sooner; and save lives while dramatically reducing the spread of HIV through treatment. It is estimated the funds raised by an EU FTT could reach 55 billion euros per year. Even a portion of that sum would be a significant boost to tackling global health crises.
The goal of this paper is twofold. First, the paper extends the analysis evaluating the performance of aid agencies by creating several best and worst practices indices, including an overall aid agency index. It does so by relying on a newly available dataset and draw from the benchmarks established in the previous literature where different measures of aid transparency, specialisation, selectivity, ineffective aid channels and overhead costs are utilised. Secondly, the analysis attempts to explain agency behaviour, addressing why agencies behave the way they do. This section relies on bureaucracy theory to address the capability of agencies to achieve best practices, highlighting both economic and political constraints.